Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Analysts remain divided on HF Sinclair, with bulls citing higher future earnings estimates and sector re-rating, while bears see valuation as stretched after strong performance and forecast slowing momentum, resulting in the consensus price target holding steady at $51.43.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts raised 2025 and 2026 estimates for HF Sinclair, citing stronger Mid-Continent cracks, improved capture rates, and higher Lubes margins.
- Bullish analysts increased HF Sinclair's valuation multiple to reflect sector-wide peer group re-rating as refiners continue to outperform the broader energy sector.
- Bearish analysts downgraded HF Sinclair due to the stock trading above perceived fair value after strong year-to-date performance.
- Earnings momentum is seen as slowing, impacted by seasonal factors with Q2 results described as "good, not great."
- Bearish analysts expect capture rates to be pressed further by narrowing crude spreads, potentially limiting upside.
What's in the News
- The company completed a repurchase of 1,329,725 shares for $50 million in the latest quarter, totaling 5,343,160 shares for $251.46 million under its current buyback authorization.
- HF Sinclair has been contacted by California officials as a potential buyer for Valero's Benicia refinery; earlier acquisition talks reportedly fell through due to environmental concerns.
- HF Sinclair was added to multiple Russell Growth indices, including the Russell 1000, 2500, 3000, 3000E, Midcap, and Small Cap Comp Growth benchmarks and indices.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for HF Sinclair
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $51.43.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for HF Sinclair remained effectively unchanged, at 1.6% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for HF Sinclair remained effectively unchanged, at 3.40%.
Disclaimer
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