Update shared on 17 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 3.00%Refined Western Haynesville Drilling Will Unlock Enduring Resource Potential
Comstock Resources' consensus price target has been revised down from $19.04 to $18.46, as analysts cite persistent weakness and oversupply in natural gas markets, disappointing Q2 results, and an elevated valuation relative to peers.
Analyst Commentary
- Bearish analysts cite persistent commodity headwinds, especially weak and oversupplied natural gas markets, as a major factor dampening upside potential.
- There is a sector-wide expectation that Henry Hub natural gas prices will remain challenged well into 2026 due to ongoing oversupply.
- Analysts highlight that industry supply discipline is lacking, with continued production growth preventing a recovery in gas prices and weakening supply/demand fundamentals for gas-exposed companies.
- Recent price target reductions also reflect lowered production estimates following disappointing Q2 results.
- Some analysts point to Comstock Resources trading at a significant valuation premium to peers, making it vulnerable to downside risk from declining gas prices and company-specific execution concerns.
What's in the News
- Second-quarter natural gas production declined to 112,164 MMcf from 130,861 MMcf year-over-year; oil production fell to 13 Mbbls from 15 Mbbls.
- Six-month total production down to 227,329 MMcfe versus 270,464 MMcfe in the prior year.
- Added to multiple Russell growth and small-cap indexes, including Russell 2000, 2500, 3000, and Small Cap Comp Growth.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Comstock Resources
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from $19.04 to $18.46.
- The Net Profit Margin for Comstock Resources has fallen slightly from 29.43% to 28.64%.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Comstock Resources remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 14.6% per annum to 14.4% per annum.
Disclaimer
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