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AR: Share Buybacks And Margin Outlook Will Support Measured Future Returns

Decarbonization And ESG Limits Will Squeeze US Gas Margins

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AR
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 24 Apr 2025

Update shared on 17 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 13%
Previous
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
5.3%
7D
-2.4%

Analysts have raised their price target on Antero Resources from approximately 29 dollars to 32 dollars and 50 cents. This reflects increased confidence in the company’s faster expected revenue growth, stronger profit margins, and a lower assumed future valuation multiple.

What's in the News

  • Completed repurchase of 31,749,955 shares, totaling approximately 10.31 percent of shares outstanding under the buyback announced on February 16, 2022 (company disclosure)
  • The latest tranche from July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025 included repurchase of 1,501,387 shares, or about 0.48 percent, for 51.36 million dollars (company disclosure)
  • Aggregate capital returned via buybacks under this authorization has reached approximately 1.08 billion dollars (company disclosure)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair value has risen moderately from 28.67 dollars per share to 32.46 dollars per share, reflecting a higher intrinsic valuation estimate.
  • The discount rate has fallen slightly from 7.38 percent to 6.96 percent, implying a lower required return and a modestly higher present value of future cash flows.
  • The revenue growth assumption has increased significantly from about 3.5 percent annually to approximately 13.3 percent, indicating a meaningfully more optimistic growth outlook.
  • The net profit margin assumption has improved materially from about 10.7 percent to roughly 17.4 percent, suggesting stronger expected profitability on future revenues.
  • The assumed future P/E has fallen sharply from 18.5 times to about 9.4 times, indicating a lower valuation multiple applied to projected earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.