Update shared on 24 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 3.53%Analysts have lowered the price target for Atlas Energy Solutions from approximately $14.18 to $13.68 per share. They cited prolonged softness in sand pricing, a weakening completions market, and continued macroeconomic headwinds.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research reports reveal a mix of optimism and caution regarding Atlas Energy Solutions, as analysts adjust their price targets and ratings in response to shifts in oil and gas market dynamics.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts indicate that oil and gas activity has shown signs of recovery in recent weeks, with some stability returning following previous lows.
- There is recognition of the Power Generation segment's momentum, which could contribute positively to Atlas Energy's diversification and near-term financial integrity.
- Despite macroeconomic challenges, the company's quarterly dividend is expected to remain stable, suggesting underlying operational resilience.
- Some market observers highlight defensive, longer-cycle production and idiosyncratic tailwinds as potential factors that could support future upside, especially in the medium to long term.
- Bearish analysts caution that the completions market remains soft, with a significant decrease in frac fleet activity since mid-July. They expect further declines in activity and pricing over the coming quarters.
- Softness in Permian sand prices and lower sand pricing overall have driven a wave of price target reductions and downgrades.
- The challenging macroeconomic backdrop, including fluctuations in oil prices and concerns over supply and demand, is expected to weigh on sector earnings and near-term valuation improvement.
- Recent gains in some related stocks, due to distributed power exposure, may already be fully reflected in Atlas Energy's current valuation. This has prompted a more cautious outlook on future appreciation potential.
What's in the News
- Atlas Energy Solutions completed the repurchase of 16,380 shares for $0.2 million between April 1, 2025 and June 30, 2025 as part of the buyback program announced on October 28, 2024 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has declined slightly from $14.18 to $13.68 per share.
- Discount Rate has risen modestly from 8.14% to 8.27%.
- Revenue Growth Forecast has fallen significantly from 1.78% to 0.80%.
- Net Profit Margin estimate has dropped from 9.52% to 7.24%.
- Future P/E Ratio has increased from 23.2x to 30.4x. This suggests expectations of higher future valuations despite lower growth.
Disclaimer
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