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NFE: Puerto Rico LNG Deal Will Ultimately Prove Priced Too Optimistically

LNG Challenges Will Impede Projects But Lead To Resilience

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NFE
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 22 Jun 2025

Update shared on 12 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 67%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-90.2%
7D
-15.8%

Analysts have raised their price target on New Fortress Energy by updating their valuation inputs, citing expectations for stronger revenue growth, improved profit margins, and a lower discount rate. Together, these factors support a higher fair value per share in dollar terms.

What's in the News

  • Puerto Rico finalized a seven year, approximately $4 billion LNG supply deal with New Fortress Energy, ending months of contentious negotiations and sending the company’s shares up nearly 40% (Bloomberg)
  • New Fortress Energy received final approval from Puerto Rico’s Financial Oversight and Management Board for a seven year Gas Supply Agreement covering about 75 TBtu of natural gas to support the island’s energy transition
  • The company reported first fire at its 624 MW CELBA 2 Power Plant in northern Brazil, a key step toward commercial operations that will expand New Fortress Energy’s integrated gas to power platform in Barcarena
  • New Fortress Energy disclosed it will be unable to file its upcoming Form 10 Q with the SEC by the required deadline, creating potential near term uncertainty around financial disclosures

Valuation Changes

  • Discount Rate: edged down slightly from about 7.04 percent to about 6.96 percent, modestly increasing the present value of future cash flows
  • Revenue Growth: revised up meaningfully from roughly 22.4 percent to about 30.1 percent, reflecting stronger expectations for top line expansion
  • Net Profit Margin: increased moderately from about 9.7 percent to roughly 11.1 percent, indicating improved profitability assumptions
  • Future P/E: reduced sharply from about 3.6 times to roughly 0.9 times, implying a materially lower multiple applied to forward earnings

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