Update shared on 14 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 17%Analysts have raised their price target on Aemetis to reflect stronger projected revenue growth, modestly higher long term margins, and a lower anticipated future earnings multiple. Together, these factors support a higher implied equity value per share in dollar terms than in the prior forecast.
What's in the News
- Received Authority To Construct air permits from the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District for a mechanical vapor recompression energy efficiency project at the 65 million gallon per year Keyes ethanol plant, clearing a key regulatory hurdle for the upgrade (Regulatory Authority – Compliance)
- MVR project expected to increase annual cash flow from operations at the Keyes plant by approximately $32 million starting mid 2026, driven by lower energy costs, higher Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit generation, and greater transferable Section 45Z tax credits (Regulatory Authority – Compliance)
- Project has secured about $19.7 million in grants and tax incentives from the California Energy Commission, Pacific Gas & Electric, and Section 48C investment tax credits from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, reducing Aemetis capital burden (Regulatory Authority – Compliance)
- Once operational, the MVR system is projected to cut natural gas usage at the Keyes plant by around 80%, deliver a double digit reduction in carbon intensity for its fuel ethanol, and benefit from rising LCFS prices and the adoption of E15 gasoline blends in California (Regulatory Authority – Compliance)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: reduced modestly, with the long term intrinsic value estimate moving from 3.0 to 2.5, reflecting a higher required return despite stronger fundamentals.
- Discount Rate: increased slightly from 11.7% to 12.5%, indicating a somewhat higher perceived risk profile or cost of capital for Aemetis.
- Revenue Growth: raised meaningfully, with projected top line expansion moving from approximately 75.6% to 88.5%, driven by expectations for stronger project contributions.
- Net Profit Margin: improved slightly, with long term margin assumptions increasing from about 9.5% to 10.1%, implying better operating leverage and cost efficiency.
- Future P/E: lowered significantly from 2.8x to about 2.1x, suggesting a more conservative earnings multiple applied to future profits despite higher growth and margin forecasts.
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