Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, US Foods Holding is benefiting from accelerating case growth, margin expansion, and improved industry demand, leading analysts to maintain their fair value estimate at $91.33.
Analyst Commentary
- Case growth at US Foods accelerated in Q2 despite macroeconomic headwinds, with potential catalysts for further improvement in the second half of 2025.
- Margins continue to expand, supporting an increased EBITDA outlook.
- Industry demand has improved, benefiting US Foods and the broader food distribution sector.
- Middle and upper income customer cohorts remain solid, and overall cost pressures are mostly benign despite ongoing policy risk.
- Bearish analysts note that while deal probability with Performance Food Group is declining, it is not yet zero, which remains a background consideration.
What's in the News
- US Foods completed buybacks of 2,538,447 shares for $198.32 million under a new program, and 25,182,741 shares for $1,340 million under the 2022 program.
- The company is accelerating share repurchases and seeking tuck-in M&A, balancing these with internal investments.
- US Foods is reportedly evaluating a takeover of Performance Food Group, potentially creating a $100 billion food distribution company; no transaction is certain at this stage.
- FY2025 sales guidance reaffirmed at 4% to 6% growth.
- US Foods announced Food Fanatics 2025, a major industry event featuring new products, technology, and culinary demonstrations to support foodservice operators.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for US Foods Holding
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $91.33.
- The Net Profit Margin for US Foods Holding remained effectively unchanged, at 2.46%.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for US Foods Holding remained effectively unchanged, at 5.3% per annum.
Disclaimer
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