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DG: Holiday Promotions And Improved Guidance Will Support Steady Earnings Outlook

Store Expansion And Digital Delivery Will Transform American Retail

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DG
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 02 Sep 2024

Update shared on 04 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 2.14%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
73.1%
7D
0.6%

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Dollar General to approximately $123 from about $120, citing slightly stronger expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and future valuation multiples.

What's in the News

  • Raised full year 2025 to 2026 diluted EPS guidance to approximately $6.30 to $6.50, up from $5.80 to $6.30, signaling improved profitability expectations (Corporate Guidance).
  • Increased net sales growth outlook to approximately 4.7% to 4.9%, compared to the prior range of 4.3% to 4.8%, reflecting stronger anticipated demand (Corporate Guidance).
  • Launched its Holiday Toy Book in stores and online, highlighting exclusive, value focused toys and promotions aimed at budget conscious families (Product Related Announcement).
  • Promoting a key holiday offer in which customers can instantly save 25% when they spend $75 or more on toys in a single transaction, including clearance items, to drive seasonal traffic and basket size (Product Related Announcement).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, increasing from about $120.11 to approximately $122.68 per share.
  • Discount Rate has edged up modestly, from roughly 7.98% to about 8.05%, indicating a slightly higher required return.
  • Revenue Growth Assumption has increased slightly, from around 4.07% to approximately 4.16% annually.
  • Net Profit Margin Assumption has risen marginally, from about 3.62% to roughly 3.63%.
  • Future P/E Multiple has moved up slightly, from about 19.60x to approximately 19.91x forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

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