Update shared on27 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 0.88%Upward analyst revisions for Dollar Tree reflect confidence in continued sales momentum, successful multi-price strategies, and effective tariff mitigation despite ongoing macro risks, resulting in a modest increase in the consensus price target from $109.13 to $110.43.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts highlight strong comparable sales momentum, driven by increased traffic and successful multi-price and merchandising strategies.
- Upward estimate revisions, multiple expansion expectations, and improved investor sentiment are supporting price target increases.
- Management’s tariff mitigation strategies, including price increases and operational adjustments, are expected to offset incremental cost pressures and preserve profitability, especially in the second half of the year.
- Earnings visibility remains a concern for some analysts due to ongoing tariff risk, inflationary pressures, and the unclear long-term impact on merchandising quality.
- Bearish analysts are cautious owing to near-term guidance cuts, increased labor costs, and the challenging geopolitical landscape, but acknowledge Dollar Tree’s resilience and underlying strengths.
What's in the News
- Dollar Tree was the victim of a significant data breach by the INC Ransomware group, resulting in the theft of 1.2TB of sensitive data including passport copies, legal correspondence, and internal complaints, with threats to publish the data (HackRead, 2025-07-30).
- The company increased its equity buyback plan authorization to $2.5 billion as of July 9, 2025 (Key Developments, 2025-07-09).
- Between February 2 and June 2, 2025, Dollar Tree repurchased 6.7 million shares (3.12% of shares outstanding) for $500.17 million; since 2013, it has repurchased 48.6 million shares (21.63%) for $4.6 billion (Key Developments, 2025-06-04).
- Dollar Tree amended its corporate by-laws on June 19, 2025, decreasing the size of its board of directors from 12 to 11 members (Key Developments, 2025-06-20).
- Q2 2025 comparable net sales growth is projected at the higher end of the 3%-5% range, with full-year 2025 net sales expected between $18.5 billion and $19.1 billion (Key Developments, 2025-06-04).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Dollar Tree
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $109.13 to $110.43.
- The Future P/E for Dollar Tree remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 18.54x to 18.75x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Dollar Tree remained effectively unchanged, at 6.3% per annum.
Disclaimer
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