CASY: Sustained Store Expansion And Strong Margins Will Support Premium Multiples Ahead

Analysts have raised their average price target for Casey's General Stores by approximately $45. They cite strong Q1 earnings, sustained fuel margins, and continued store growth momentum as key drivers for their increased outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Street research following Casey's General Stores' first quarter earnings has offered insight into both the company's strong performance and remaining risks. Analyst adjustments have reflected increased confidence in Casey's growth strategy, but some caution remains around valuation and sustainability of current trends.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that Casey's has delivered Q1 earnings that exceeded consensus estimates and reflect strong execution across fuel and in-store operations.
• Enhanced pricing power and noticeable share gains have led to upward revisions in earnings outlooks and firm price targets. This supports a higher valuation multiple.
• The company is making meaningful progress with unit expansion and store growth. This points toward robust long-term growth prospects and sustained inside-store momentum.
• Casey's ability to maintain high fuel margins, while balancing volume and price, indicates effective management of industry challenges and could support continued outperformance.

Bearish Takeaways

• Some analysts remain cautious, noting that Casey's strong recent results have set a high bar for continued earnings growth, particularly given its current premium valuation over 30x EPS.
• There is an element of risk around the sustainability of strong fuel margins, which could be pressured if industry conditions or competition shift.
• A neutral outlook from certain firms suggests that while operational performance is commendable, much of the good news may already be priced into the shares following recent runs.

What's in the News

• Casey's expects to open at least 80 new stores in fiscal 2026 through a combination of acquisitions and new construction. This will bring the total for its three-year strategic plan to approximately 500 new stores (Key Developments).
• From May 1 to July 31, 2025, the company repurchased 69,687 shares for $31.25 million, completing a total buyback of 461,977 shares worth $136.14 million under the buyback plan announced in March 2018 (Key Developments).
• Casey's reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook, expecting inside same-store sales to increase by 2% to 5%, an inside margin of approximately 41%, and same-store fuel gallons sold to be between negative 1% and positive 1% (Key Developments).
• On September 2, 2025, Bowyer Research urged shareholders to vote against a proposal requiring Casey's to disclose measurable greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets at the company's annual meeting (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value remains unchanged at $585.85. Analyst consensus sees no major shift in long-term intrinsic value.
• Discount Rate has risen slightly, from 6.96% to 7.11%. This reflects possibly higher perceived risk or updated market assumptions.
• Revenue Growth expectation is effectively flat, holding at about 5.91% year over year.
• Net Profit Margin is stable at approximately 4.03%, suggesting ongoing confidence in Casey's profitability outlook.
• Future P/E ratio has increased marginally, from 33.76x to 33.90x. This implies expectations for sustained strong earnings or a higher valuation premium.