Update shared on 14 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 8.71%Analysts have revised their price target for Maplebear downward from $55.50 to approximately $50.67. This change reflects more cautious assumptions around future growth and profitability.
What's in the News
- Instacart announced a major partnership with Associated Food Stores, bringing its Storefront and Storefront Pro e-commerce solutions, along with Carrot Ads and AI-powered Caper Carts, to over 40 member-owned banners and multiple owned banners. This expands e-commerce and retail media capabilities. (Client Announcements)
- The company completed the repurchase of nearly 19.9 million shares for $707.96 million under its existing buyback plan and increased its buyback authorization by $1.5 billion, bringing the total to $2.5 billion. (Buyback Tranche Update, Buyback - Change in Plan Terms)
- Instacart launched a new suite of enterprise AI solutions, including catalog intelligence and agentic analytics, aimed at helping grocers build smarter product catalogs and gain instant, actionable insights. (Product-Related Announcements)
- The Kroger Co. and Instacart deepened their relationship, designating Instacart as Kroger's primary delivery fulfillment partner for all Kroger banners nationwide and introducing additional AI-powered and agentic shopping experiences for customers. (Strategic Alliances)
- Instacart provided guidance for Q4 2025, expecting Gross Transaction Value (GTV) in the range of $9.45 billion to $9.6 billion, representing 9% to 11% year-over-year growth, with orders projected to grow faster than GTV. (Corporate Guidance - New/Confirmed)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has decreased from $55.50 to approximately $50.67, indicating a moderately lower assessment of Maplebear’s intrinsic worth.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 6.78% to 6.96%. This reflects a higher required return and marginally increased risk perception.
- Revenue Growth Forecast has fallen from 9.07% to 7.66%. This signals more conservative expectations for future sales expansion.
- Net Profit Margin estimate has declined from 16.39% to 15.61%, showing expectations for slightly reduced profitability.
- Future Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio has been revised downward from 25.44x to 24.54x. This suggests a lower anticipated earnings multiple.
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