Update shared on 19 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 50%Analysts have raised their price target on Andersons to approximately $60 from around $40, citing a lower perceived risk profile, expectations for stronger profit margins, and a more attractive future earnings multiple, despite moderating revenue growth assumptions.
What's in the News
- President Trump is considering at least $10 billion in tariff funded aid for U.S. farmers, which could indirectly support agriculture focused companies such as Andersons as the sector grapples with trade related pressures (Wall Street Journal via periodical report).
- Andersons announced a first quarter 2026 cash dividend of $0.20 per share, a nearly 3% increase from the prior quarter, which the company described as signaling confidence in cash flow and a continued focus on returning capital to shareholders (company dividend announcement).
- The company issued long term guidance targeting a run rate earnings per share of $7.00 exiting 2028, which it stated implies a 36% compound annual growth rate from $2.56 per share for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2025 (corporate guidance statement).
- Management reiterated that Andersons is actively evaluating acquisition opportunities in agribusiness and renewables, and stated that it aims to use its balance sheet strength and tax credit driven cash flow as dry powder for strategic M&A (2025 third quarter earnings call commentary).
- Between July 1 and September 30, 2025, Andersons repurchased 373,144 shares for $14.19 million, completing a broader buyback of 460,552 shares totaling $17.67 million under its August 2024 authorization, which modestly reduced share count and supported EPS (share repurchase update).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: increased significantly from approximately $40 to about $60 per share, reflecting a higher intrinsic valuation for Andersons.
- Discount Rate: decreased slightly from roughly 7.66 percent to about 7.55 percent, indicating a modestly lower perceived risk profile.
- Revenue Growth: reduced moderately from around 4.60 percent to about 3.88 percent, signaling more conservative top line expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: raised substantially from roughly 1.25 percent to about 3.53 percent, reflecting expectations for stronger profitability.
- Future P/E: lowered meaningfully from about 10.28 times to approximately 5.36 times, implying a more attractive forward earnings multiple.
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