ANDE: Future Farm Aid And Biofuel Policy Will Shape Profit Outlook

Analysts have nudged their price target for Andersons higher to reflect a modest increase in estimated fair value to 50.00 dollars, supported by slightly lower discount rate assumptions and largely unchanged expectations for long term revenue growth, profit margins, and future valuation multiples.

What's in the News

• The U.S. administration is considering at least 10 billion dollars in tariff funded aid for farmers, which could potentially benefit major agriculture players including Andersons, Archer Daniels, Bunge, and others (Wall Street Journal).
• The White House is reviewing an EPA proposal that would shift part of waived biofuel blending obligations onto large oil refineries, affecting biofuel exposed agribusinesses such as Andersons, Bunge, and Archer Daniels (Reuters).
• From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, Andersons repurchased 373,144 shares for 14.19 million dollars, completing a total of 460,552 shares bought back for 17.67 million dollars under its August 15, 2024 authorization (Company disclosure).
• Management highlighted an active search for acquisitions, pointing to strong cash generation and renewables tax credits as funding support, and noted interest in M&A within agribusiness and renewables where Andersons could be a better owner (Q3 2025 earnings call).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate reaffirmed at 50.00 dollars per share, with no material change versus the prior model.
• Discount Rate edged down slightly from 7.65 percent to about 7.61 percent, modestly increasing the present value of future cash flows.
• Revenue Growth effectively unchanged at approximately 3.84 percent, indicating a steady long term top line outlook.
• Net Profit Margin remains stable at roughly 3.21 percent, reflecting no shift in profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E reduced marginally from about 4.93 times to 4.93 times, signaling a near identical terminal valuation multiple.