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TNET: Guidance And AI Tools Will Shape A Balanced Risk Outlook

Falling WSE Volumes Will Undermine PEO Services Despite Efficiency Gains

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TNET
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 27 Jul 2025

Update shared on 17 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 7.46%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-35.0%
7D
-3.0%

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for TriNet Group from 67 dollars to 62 dollars per share, citing slightly higher perceived risk, softer long term growth and margin expectations, and a richer forward earnings multiple.

What's in the News

  • TriNet reaffirmed its full year 2025 guidance, projecting total revenues of 4,950 to 5,140 million dollars and diluted EPS of 1.90 to 3.40 dollars, signaling confidence in its operating outlook (company guidance).
  • The company announced the appointment of Mala Murthy as Chief Financial Officer, effective November 28, with outgoing CFO Kelly Tuminelli transitioning to a special advisor role through March 16, 2026 (executive changes).
  • TriNet reported the completion of a substantial long running share repurchase program, having bought back 36,136,623 shares, or 57.3 percent of shares, for approximately 2.59 billion dollars in total, including 481,649 shares repurchased in the most recent quarter (buyback tranche update).
  • TriNet introduced a suite of human centered, AI enabled HR tools, including a Personal Health Assistant, the forthcoming TriNet Assistant, and a Dynamic Dashboard, aimed at automating routine tasks while keeping HR professionals in the loop (product related announcement).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has been reduced modestly from 67.00 dollars to 62.00 dollars per share.
  • The discount rate has risen slightly from 7.57 percent to 7.75 percent, reflecting a marginally higher perceived risk profile.
  • The revenue growth outlook remains deeply negative, with the long-term growth rate declining further from approximately minus 51.06 percent to minus 51.92 percent.
  • The net profit margin forecast has fallen significantly from about 39.03 percent to 32.83 percent, indicating a more conservative margin outlook.
  • The future P/E multiple has increased from 16.42 times to 18.39 times forward earnings, implying a somewhat richer valuation despite the lower fair value estimate.

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Disclaimer

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