Update shared on16 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 5.16%Despite anticipated sales and contract opportunities from increased immigration enforcement, analyst concerns over execution risks and profitability have led to a downward revision in CoreCivic’s consensus price target from $31.50 to $29.88.
Analyst Commentary
- Anticipated passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" includes significant funding increases for immigration enforcement, likely driving greater demand for detention capacity and positively impacting CoreCivic’s business.
- Bullish analysts see CoreCivic as well-positioned to capitalize on increased government spending linked to immigration control initiatives.
- Market share opportunity as CoreCivic is the largest private prison owner/operator in the U.S. and the major private owner of correctional real estate used by government agencies.
- Potential upside from the redeployment of eight currently idle facilities, which could be brought online under favorable contract terms to meet rising demand.
- Incremental revenue opportunities from new monitoring and supervision contracts projected within the next 12 to 24 months.
What's in the News
- Damon T. Hininger will step down as CEO, with Patrick Swindle, currently President and COO, to succeed him as CEO and continue as President; Hininger will serve as Special Advisor to the CEO and Chairman through March 2027.
- CoreCivic secured a new contract under an IGSA with the City of Mason and ICE to reopen the 600-bed West Tennessee Detention Facility, projecting annual revenue of $30-$35 million once fully operational by Q1 2026.
- The company repurchased 2,012,599 shares (1.84%) for $43.17 million, now totaling 18,456,393 shares repurchased (16.09%) for $262.17 million under the existing buyback program.
- Full year 2025 earnings guidance was raised to net income of $116.4–$124.4 million (prior: $91.3–$101.3 million) and diluted EPS of $1.08–$1.15 (prior: $0.83–$0.92).
- CoreCivic was added to several major growth indices (Russell 2000 Growth, 2500 Growth, 3000 Growth, Small Cap Comp Growth, 3000E Growth) and dropped from value and defensive indices.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for CoreCivic
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen from $31.50 to $29.88.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for CoreCivic has fallen from 11.7% per annum to 10.6% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for CoreCivic has fallen from 9.06% to 8.39%.
Disclaimer
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