Update shared on19 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 3.55%Casella Waste Systems’ consensus price target has been revised downward as analysts highlight operational challenges tied to its geographic expansion and sector-specific headwinds, resulting in a new fair value of $118.51.
Analyst Commentary
- Bearish analysts point to “growing pains” related to Casella Waste's geographic expansion, which may be underestimated by consensus.
- Recent sector pullback is seen as presenting selective buying opportunities, but Casella Waste is not among the preferred names.
- Despite resilient demand and positive long-term industry trends, Casella is seen as facing operational challenges.
- Waste and water infrastructure are viewed as offering stable, cycle-resistant demand, but near-term issues weigh on Casella specifically.
- Long-term consolidation opportunities in the sector are recognized, though not seen as currently favoring Casella Waste.
What's in the News
- John W. Casella will transition from Chief Executive Officer to Executive Chairman of Casella Waste Systems, effective January 1, 2026; Edmond R. Coletta appointed as CEO and elected to the board effective the same date.
- Edmond R. Coletta, currently President, has a long tenure with the company, previously serving as President and CFO, and will continue as President after becoming CEO.
- The board size will increase to 10 members with Coletta's election as a Class II director.
- Casella Waste Systems raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $1.82-$1.84 billion (from $1.775-$1.805 billion) while lowering net income expectations to $8-$18 million (from $10-$25 million).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Casella Waste Systems
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from $122.87 to $118.51.
- The Future P/E for Casella Waste Systems has fallen slightly from 102.01x to 98.45x.
- The Discount Rate for Casella Waste Systems remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 7.19% to 7.21%.
Disclaimer
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