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PFS: Improving Credit Quality Will Drive Future Upside Potential

Analysts Lift Provident Financial Price Target Amid Improved Margins and Share Buyback Completion

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PFS
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 24 Sep 2024

Update shared on 10 Dec 2025

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10.4%
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1.2%

Analysts nudged their price target on Provident Financial Services modestly higher to approximately $22.63 per share, reflecting slightly lower discount rate assumptions and sustained expectations for steady revenue growth, resilient profit margins, and a stable forward earnings multiple.

What's in the News

  • Completed share repurchase program announced January 29, 2021, with a total of 3,065,903 shares bought back for $69.23 million, representing 3.94% of shares outstanding (Key Developments)
  • The latest tranche from July 1 to September 30, 2025 included the repurchase of 1,335 shares for $0.02 million, a marginal 0.001022% of shares, signaling a final clean up of the program (Key Developments)
  • Third quarter 2025 net loan charge offs declined to $5.4 million from $6.8 million a year earlier, indicating improving credit quality trends (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate: Unchanged at approximately $22.63 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value assessment.
  • Discount Rate: Fallen slightly from about 7.86 percent to approximately 7.80 percent, modestly increasing the present value of projected cash flows.
  • Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at roughly 7.68 percent, reflecting stable expectations for top line expansion.
  • Net Profit Margin: Essentially flat at about 35.11 percent, signaling steady assumptions for earnings efficiency.
  • Future P/E: Edged down slightly from around 10.14x to approximately 10.12x, implying a marginally lower valuation multiple on expected earnings.

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