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TCBI: Earnings Outlook And Credit Normalization Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward Profile

Sunbelt Lending And Digital Advances Will Drive Future Opportunity

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TCBI
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 26 Jan 2025

Update shared on 17 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 1.83%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
21.6%
7D
-3.8%

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Texas Capital Bancshares by approximately 2 percent to reflect a slightly higher fair value estimate of about $95.36 per share, supported by updated assumptions around long term valuation multiples and profitability.

What's in the News

  • Reaffirmed full year 2025 earnings outlook, targeting low double digit revenue growth, supported by a more diversified earnings platform and consistent client engagement (company guidance)
  • Reported third quarter 2025 net charge offs of $13.7 million, higher than $13.0 million in the prior quarter and $6.1 million in the third quarter of 2024, signaling some credit cost normalization (company results)
  • Completed repurchase of 801,053 shares for $58.82 million, including 87,087 shares bought between July 1 and September 30, 2025, under the January 23, 2025 buyback authorization (company disclosure)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from approximately $93.64 to $95.36 per share, reflecting a modestly higher assessed intrinsic value.
  • Discount Rate is effectively unchanged, edging down marginally from about 6.96 percent to 6.96 percent, indicating a stable risk and return profile.
  • Revenue Growth outlook has softened slightly, easing from roughly 10.64 percent to 10.52 percent, suggesting a modestly more conservative top line trajectory.
  • Net Profit Margin expectations have edged down marginally from about 24.36 percent to 24.34 percent, implying broadly stable profitability assumptions.
  • Future P/E multiple has risen slightly from roughly 13.29x to 13.59x, indicating a modestly higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.