Loading...
Back to narrative

FIBK: Activist Pressure And Rich Multiple Will Limit Future Share Returns

Exiting 12 Branches And Managing Credit Risks Will Shape Stability

FIBK logo
FIBK
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 04 May 2025

Update shared on 18 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 22%
n/a
n/a
AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
n/a
Loading
1Y
9.6%
7D
1.0%

Analysts have raised their price target on First Interstate BancSystem from 25.00 dollars to approximately 30.45 dollars, reflecting expectations for stronger long term profitability and a modestly higher future earnings multiple, despite tempered revenue growth assumptions and a slightly higher discount rate.

What's in the News

  • HoldCo Asset Management has built a 3.8% stake in First Interstate, calling for an end to acquisitions, increased share buybacks, and warning it may push for a sale if the board does not change course (Bloomberg).
  • HoldCo has sent multiple communications to the board criticizing prior M&A decisions, including the Great Western acquisition, and signaling it may nominate its own director slate if engagement does not lead to a strategic shift (company and activist communications).
  • First Interstate was added to the S&P 600, S&P 600 Financials, S&P 1000, and S&P Composite 1500 indexes, broadening its visibility and potential ownership among index-tracking investors (index provider announcements).
  • The company completed a buyback tranche of 1,942,903 shares for 60.2 million, representing 1.85% of shares outstanding, under the repurchase program announced in August 2025 (company disclosure).
  • Management issued 2026 guidance that calls for mid single digit net interest income expansion and reported a sharp improvement in credit quality, with third quarter 2025 net charge offs dropping to 0.06% of average loans from 0.60% a year earlier (company guidance and results).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has risen moderately, from approximately 25.00 dollars to about 30.45 dollars per share.
  • The discount rate has increased slightly, from roughly 6.61 percent to about 6.96 percent, reflecting a marginally higher required return.
  • Revenue growth assumptions have fallen meaningfully, from about 7.16 percent to roughly 4.75 percent annually.
  • The net profit margin outlook has improved modestly, moving from around 27.96 percent to approximately 30.07 percent.
  • The future P/E multiple has risen slightly, from roughly 10.0 times to about 11.1 times expected earnings.

Have other thoughts on First Interstate BancSystem?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

Disclaimer

AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.