FCNC.A: Forward Guidance And Credit Trends Will Drive Post-Earnings Confidence

First Citizens BancShares' analyst price target was revised slightly higher to $2,158.85 from $2,155, as analysts cite resilient Q3 performance and updated guidance that offset near-term earnings headwinds.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts have recently adjusted their perspectives on First Citizens BancShares, balancing both positive and cautious views following the company’s latest earnings and guidance updates.

• Forward-looking guidance on net interest income and credit trends suggests management is proactively addressing market volatility. This instills investor confidence in the bank’s operational execution.
• Solid loan and deposit growth momentum is highlighted. Deepening client relationships are contributing to increased fund banking loan utilization and stronger deposit inflows.
• Despite guidance revisions, analysts expect overall performance to remain resilient. This supports stable to improving valuations even amid sector headwinds.
• Some believe the bank has cleared a key post-earnings hurdle by providing transparent direction on interest rate sensitivity. This helps mitigate uncertainty for investors focused on long-term growth prospects.

• Multiple analysts have reduced their price targets, citing headwinds including projected net interest margin compression due to anticipated rate cuts next year.
• Guidance for 2025 and 2026 earnings per share has been revised downward, with specific mention of exposures such as the recent auto supplier bankruptcy, which could weigh on near-term profitability.
• Some believe returns may remain range-bound in the near future. This is due to lingering net interest income pressures and macroeconomic uncertainty.
• Despite improvements in certain operational metrics, analysts remain cautious about the impact of rate dynamics on the bank’s overall asset-liability profile.

What's in the News

• First Citizens Bank Equipment Finance entered a vendor finance agreement with Dynapac North America LLC to provide leasing and lending solutions for road construction equipment. This initiative aims to offer Dynapac’s dealer network flexible financing options for road-paving projects (Client Announcements).
• The company reported net charge-offs of $234 million (0.65% of average loans) for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. This marks a notable increase from $119 million (0.33% of average loans) in the previous quarter (Impairments/Write Offs).
• First Citizens BancShares completed share repurchases totaling 457,350 shares, representing approximately 3.49% of shares outstanding, for a combined cost of $900 million during the quarter. The buybacks were conducted under repurchase programs announced in July 2024 and July 2025 (Buyback Tranche Update).
• The company revised its full-year 2025 earnings guidance, tightening net interest income expectations to a range of $6.74 billion to $6.84 billion. It also indicated a projected $200 million annual decrease in loan accretion versus 2024 levels (Corporate Guidance Raised).
• The Board of Directors declared a quarterly common stock dividend of $2.10 per share, to be paid on December 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of November 28, 2025 (Dividend Increases).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target increased slightly from $2,155 to $2,158.85, reflecting a modest upward revision in fair value estimates.
• Discount Rate edged higher from 8.70% to 8.71%, suggesting a minor recalibration in risk assumptions applied to future cash flows.
• Revenue Growth projections remain essentially unchanged, holding steady at approximately 2.62%.
• Net Profit Margin forecast improved marginally to 23.29% from 23.16%, indicating slightly stronger profitability expectations.
• Future P/E ratio decreased modestly from 12.43x to 12.38x, reflecting a minor adjustment in valuation multiples based on revised earnings outlook.