Update shared on30 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 1.06%XPeng's consensus price target increased modestly to $26.43, reflecting analysts' optimism on improved vehicle margins, higher volume forecasts from new model launches, and recent earnings outperformance.
Analyst Commentary
- Improvement in vehicle margin driven by better product mix, supply chain optimization, and economies of scale.
- Upward revision of vehicle volume estimates through 2027, supported by the upcoming launch of the new P7 model.
- Recent bottom line beats in quarterly results, with non-GAAP net loss notably better than expected.
- Adjustments to profit forecasts: short-term (2026) profit lowered modestly, but long-term (2027) profit outlook raised significantly.
- Focus on vehicle margin expansion as a key driver, with potential for further non-operating gains (e.g., FX gains) providing additional upside surprise.
What's in the News
- XPeng issued Q3 2025 earnings guidance with projected revenues of RMB 19.6–21.0 billion, a YoY increase of 94–108%.
- Expanded technical collaboration with Volkswagen Group will integrate XPeng’s E/E Architecture into Volkswagen’s electric, ICE, and PHEV platforms in China, accelerating software-driven vehicle development and strengthening both companies’ competitiveness.
- XPeng launched 2025 versions of the G6 and G9 in Europe, announced the P7+ launch, expanded into the UK, Italy, Ireland (46 countries total), achieved 86% XNGP penetration in urban driving, and introduced new Tianji XOS smart features.
- SunCar Tech deepened its strategic partnership with XPeng, offering advanced AI-driven auto insurance solutions for XPeng owners as new models like the G7 launch with premium features.
- XPeng reported record delivery growth: 33,525 EVs in May (up 230% YoY) and 162,578 YTD units (up 293% YoY).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for XPeng
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $26.15 to $26.43.
- The Future P/E for XPeng has significantly fallen from 40.85x to 5.76x.
- The Discount Rate for XPeng remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 12.77% to 12.81%.
Disclaimer
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