Update shared on 28 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.12%Ferrari’s analyst price target has been adjusted lower by approximately $10, as analysts cite cautiousness over higher fixed costs and sector headwinds. Analysts maintain continued confidence in the company’s premium positioning and robust business model.
Analyst Commentary
Recent street research reflects a wide range of views on Ferrari’s outlook, driven by changes to price targets and ratings amid shifting sector dynamics and expectations for the company’s execution. Analysts highlight both strengths and potential risks in Ferrari’s business model and market environment.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts continue to emphasize Ferrari’s premium brand and robust business model. They view the company as well-positioned within the luxury automotive sector.
- There is significant optimism that higher-priced Special Series volumes and price/mix improvement opportunities will drive further top-line growth.
- Several major institutions expect upcoming product launches to support Ferrari’s ability to meet or even exceed 2030 targets ahead of schedule.
- Share buybacks, strong cash flow generation, and increased dividend payout ratios are seen as supporting shareholder returns and valuation resilience. This is particularly noted as Ferrari differentiates itself from mainstream carmakers.
- Bearish analysts highlight persistent headwinds, including potential increases in fixed costs over the next two years, which could pressure margins in the near term.
- Sector-wide challenges such as tariff risks, foreign exchange volatility, and evolving emissions regulations in Europe remain sources of uncertainty for execution and profitability.
- Some firms have lowered their peer valuation benchmarks or applied discounts relative to ultra-luxury peers. They cite the need for Ferrari to restore investor confidence after muted third-quarter expectations.
- Cautious analysts also point to adjustments in longer-term targets and estimates, reflecting a more prudent outlook on capital allocation and the pace of electrification within Ferrari’s strategy.
What's in the News
- Ferrari plans to release a new digital token for its wealthiest customers to participate in an exclusive Ferrari 499P auction. This move aims to tap into the rising interest among younger tech entrepreneurs (Reuters).
- The company has completed the repurchase of 5.62 million shares, representing 3.12% of outstanding shares, under its ongoing buyback program announced in 2022.
- Ferrari's Board of Directors has authorized a new buyback plan and share repurchase program, allowing up to €3.5 billion in repurchases.
- A proposal to increase the dividend payout to 40% of adjusted net profit from 2025 has been made. This could result in a cumulative payout of about €3.5 billion between 2027 and 2031.
- Ferrari revised its earnings guidance for 2025 upward and now expects net revenues of at least €7.1 billion. The company also confirmed long-term guidance targeting €9.0 billion in revenues and an EBIT margin of at least 30% by 2030.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has declined slightly, moving from $466.27 to $456.37.
- Discount Rate has risen marginally from 14.52% to 14.56%.
- Revenue Growth Assumption has edged down, now at 6.52% compared to 6.53% previously.
- Net Profit Margin has decreased fractionally, from 23.64% to 23.63%.
- Future Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio Estimate has fallen modestly from 51.45x to 50.94x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.