NIO: Production Momentum And Record Deliveries Will Drive Upside Into 2025

Analysts have raised their price target for NIO, now forecasting further upside as improving vehicle orders, production momentum, and narrowing losses drive a modest upward revision to the firm's valuation. The target has increased by up to $3.20 in the latest updates.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst reports reflect a mix of optimism and caution for NIO, as the company navigates an evolving automotive market and macroeconomic landscape. Price targets have generally moved higher, but not all experts share the same level of enthusiasm regarding execution and the near-term outlook.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts cite an uptick in new vehicle orders and production momentum. They highlight especially strong demand for models such as the L90 and ES8.
• Several recent price target increases reflect improved earnings estimates, along with the potential for net losses to narrow as margins recover and production scales up.
• Upcoming catalysts, including product launches and major industry events, are viewed as drivers for shares and volume growth. Some forecasts suggest robust delivery increases into 2025 and 2026.
• Expansion of NIO’s infrastructure, such as the power swap network that now connects key highways and city clusters, is seen as enhancing the company’s competitive advantage and long-term growth prospects.

Bearish Takeaways

• Some analysts remain cautious and maintain neutral ratings even as price targets are raised. They express concerns about the company's ability to deliver sustainable profitability in the near term.
• Questions persist around the long-term impact of U.S. tariffs and evolving government policies on electric vehicles. These factors could affect margins or sales momentum, even if immediate effects are minimal.
• While revenue growth and production ramps are expected, execution risks remain. Risks are particularly tied to the launch and scaling of new models in a competitive landscape.

What's in the News

• NIO has begun licensing its Shenji NX9031 chip technology to an automotive chipmaker, with order values estimated in the hundreds of millions of RMB (CnEVPost).
• A Board Meeting is scheduled for November 24, 2025, to consider the unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2025.
• NIO delivered 31,305 vehicles in August 2025, a 55.2% year-over-year increase and a new monthly record. Year-to-date deliveries reached 166,472 units, and cumulative deliveries surpassed 830,000 vehicles.
• The ONVO L90 is expected to reach a monthly production capacity of 15,000 units by October 2025. In addition, the newly launched ES8 will ramp up to 15,000 units by December 2025. NIO aims for a fourth-quarter monthly delivery goal of 50,000 vehicles.
• Earnings guidance for the third quarter of 2025 projects total revenues between RMB 21,812 million (USD 3,045 million) and RMB 22,876 million (USD 3,193 million), representing growth of approximately 16.8% to 22.5% from the prior year.

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value has declined slightly from $6.91 to $6.83 per share, reflecting a minor downgrade in valuation.
• Discount Rate has risen modestly from 12.12% to 12.37%, which suggests a higher risk premium in updated models.
• Revenue Growth expectations have increased marginally, moving from 30.29% to 30.36% in the latest forecast.
• Net Profit Margin estimates have dipped slightly from 4.96% to 4.91%, indicating expectations of a marginally tighter profit outlook.
• Future P/E has dropped from 25.03x to 20.51x, which signals anticipation of improved earnings or a more conservative valuation environment.