VFS: Electric Bus Expansion Will Support Stronger Long-Term Market Position

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on VinFast Auto, reflecting a slightly higher fair value estimate of approximately 6.36 dollars per share. This change is supported by a lower perceived discount rate and only minor adjustments to long term growth and profitability assumptions.

What's in the News

• VinFast unveiled its EB 8 and EB 12 electric bus models at Busworld Europe 2025, marking its entry into the public transportation segment with full size and mid size eBuses designed for European cities (Key Developments).
• The EB 12 city bus is already compliant with UNECE and CE regulations, available to order in Europe, and will be produced in Vietnam with an annual capacity of 1,500 to 2,000 vehicles starting commercial operation from 2026 (Key Developments).
• Both EB 8 and EB 12 feature advanced safety and driver assistance systems, including driver monitoring, blind spot detection, collision warnings, intelligent speed assistance, fire suppression, and CCTV, and are covered by unlimited mileage warranties of up to 8 years for key components (Key Developments).
• VinFast plans strategic partnerships to build a distribution network for its electric buses in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, and the CEE and Baltic regions, leveraging its existing eBus ecosystem proven in major Vietnamese cities (Key Developments).
• In collaboration with armored vehicle specialist INKAS, VinFast introduced the Lac Hong 900 LX, an armored electric SUV based on the VF 9, certified to high ballistic and blast protection standards and delivered in a ceremonial fleet to Vietnam's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from approximately $5.83 to $6.36 per share, reflecting a modestly higher intrinsic value.
• The Discount Rate has fallen slightly from about 20.4 percent to 19.5 percent, indicating a marginally lower perceived risk profile.
• Revenue Growth has decreased moderately from roughly 48.9 percent to 43.3 percent, suggesting more conservative top line expectations.
• The Net Profit Margin has edged down slightly from about 5.1 percent to 4.9 percent, implying a small reduction in long term profitability assumptions.
• The Future P/E Multiple has declined marginally from around 69.8x to 68.6x, signaling a slightly lower valuation multiple applied to projected earnings.