LCID: Robotaxi Expansion Will Drive Long-Term Upside Despite Capital Needs

Analysts have cut their average price target for Lucid Group by roughly half to about $29 per share, as they balance confidence in the company’s EV technology and product pipeline with expectations for slower growth, thinner long term profitability, and the need for additional capital.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts continue to highlight the strength of Lucid's technology and product roadmap, even as they recalibrate expectations for profitability and capital needs. Price targets have been adjusted to reflect a more conservative ramp, but positive revisions and supportive commentary underscore confidence in the company’s long term growth potential.

Recent research notes point to the high perceived quality of the Air and upcoming Gravity SUV, along with a growing opportunity set in autonomous driving and potential robotaxi applications. These factors are seen as key inputs to valuation, with analysts arguing that execution on these initiatives could justify premium multiples versus traditional automakers.

Some bullish analysts have raised their targets following management meetings, citing greater conviction in Lucid's ability to expand its platform into new segments and leverage software and autonomy to enhance monetization over the life of each vehicle. Others, while trimming targets, maintain positive ratings and stress that required capital raises are manageable in light of the company’s technology edge and brand positioning.

JPMorgan and other major institutions also note that Lucid's recent convertible issuance, despite its dilutive potential, extends the company’s liquidity runway and reduces near term funding uncertainty. This is seen as supportive for the equity story as the production ramp continues.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts view Lucid’s core EV platforms, including Air and Gravity, as differentiated products that can support premium pricing and higher long term margins. This is presented as a key underpinning of current valuation despite near term losses.
• The raising of certain price targets, even from previously lower bases, is described as reflecting growing confidence that Lucid can execute on its roadmap and scale volumes, narrowing the gap between current delivery levels and the embedded growth assumptions in the stock.
• Management’s emphasis on autonomy and potential robotaxi applications is seen as a key upside lever, with some investors assigning value to recurring software and services revenue streams layered on top of vehicle sales.
• Recent capital markets activity, including the convertible notes deal, is framed by bullish analysts as a necessary step to secure growth funding. This is viewed as reducing financing risk and allowing investors to focus more on operational execution and long term market share dynamics.

What's in the News

• Uber plans to launch driverless rides in the San Francisco Bay Area using Lucid Gravity SUVs equipped with Nuro self driving technology, positioning Lucid directly in the emerging robotaxi market (Bloomberg).
• Lucid has launched the Gravity Touring, a lower priced variant of its Gravity SUV that expands the lineup with up to 337 miles of EPA estimated range and ultra fast charging via NACS and other DC fast chargers.
• Orders for the Lucid Gravity Touring have opened in Canada, with deliveries expected early next year and an estimated range of up to 542 kilometres and dual motor all wheel drive performance.
• Lucid has begun deliveries of the Gravity Grand Touring in Canada, offering up to seven seat capacity, over 720 kilometres of projected range, and high speed access to Tesla Superchargers and other fast charging networks.
• Lucid reported third quarter 2025 production of 3,891 vehicles plus more than 1,000 units built for final assembly in Saudi Arabia, bringing year to date production to 9,966 vehicles.

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Estimated fair value per share has fallen significantly, from about $54.82 to roughly $28.77, implying a materially lower long term equity valuation.
• Discount Rate: The assumed discount rate has risen slightly, from 12.32% to 12.5%, modestly increasing the required return and reducing present value estimates.
• Revenue Growth: Long term revenue growth expectations have been trimmed, from approximately 114.7% to about 105.1%, reflecting a somewhat slower anticipated scale up.
• Net Profit Margin: Forecast net profit margin has edged lower, from around 5.04% to roughly 4.89%, signaling marginally more conservative profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E: The future price to earnings multiple has decreased substantially, from about 54.6x to roughly 36.1x, indicating a less aggressive valuation framework for Lucid’s earnings power.