HSAI: Global Supply Chain Integration Will Drive Market Share Expansion

The analyst consensus price target for Hesai Group has been revised down from $30.43 to $29.90, as analysts balanced slightly lower revenue growth outlooks with continued optimism for expanding market adoption and profit margins.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts maintain a positive outlook on Hesai Group's prospects, highlighting strong growth drivers and potential market gains that could support higher valuations.

• Analysts see a significant ramp-up in LiDAR adoption in China this year. Further global acceleration is anticipated in 2026 and 2027.
• Projections indicate that by 2030, Hesai's overseas advanced driver assistance systems LiDAR volume could reach 3 million units. This would match projected 2025 volumes for China, excluding the U.S. market.
• The company’s recent integration into major domestic original equipment manufacturers’ supply chains and an order win from Mercedes-Benz highlight growing international traction.
• Expansion into new markets, such as robotics lawnmower LiDAR, is viewed as a key opportunity to drive incremental growth and diversify revenue streams.

• Some analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of recent growth rates amid increasing competition, which could pressure both margins and pricing power.
• Uncertainties in overseas markets, particularly regarding regulatory challenges and the pace of adoption outside China, could impact execution.
• Scaling production to meet anticipated global demand may pose operational risks. Execution delays could potentially affect near-term earnings.

What's in the News

• Hesai Technology has been selected by Li Auto to supply lidars for all models in its next-generation assisted driving platform, covering the "L" Series, "i" Series, and "MEGA" as the exclusive lidar supplier (Client Announcements).
• The company reached a major production milestone in 2025 by producing its 1,000,000th lidar unit, becoming the first lidar company globally to surpass one million units in annual production (Announcement of Operating Results).
• Hesai Group provided revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, anticipating net revenues between RMB 1,000 million (USD 140 million) and RMB 1,200 million (USD 169 million), which represents a year-over-year increase of approximately 39% to 67% (Corporate Guidance).
• Hesai signed an expanded production agreement valued at over $40 million with a leading U.S.-based robotaxi company, supplying both long-range and short-range lidars for deliveries before the end of 2026. The company holds a 61% global market share in the L4 autonomous driving segment for lidar (Client Announcements).
• Hesai plans to list its shares in Hong Kong as early as next month and aims to raise USD 300 million after securing approval from China’s securities regulator. The listing would make Hesai among the first US-listed Chinese firms to seek a Hong Kong listing after increased US delisting risks (Seeking Financing/Partners).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased slightly from $30.43 to $29.90, reflecting recent adjustments in growth and valuation assumptions.
• Discount Rate has risen from 8.52% to 8.99%, indicating a modest increase in perceived risk or cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth Forecast was revised downward from 44.60% to 38.65%, signaling tempered expectations for near-term expansion.
• Net Profit Margin has improved from 18.79% to 20.01%, pointing to anticipated gains in operational efficiency or profitability.
• Future P/E Ratio remains steady, changing only marginally from 27.79x to 27.77x. This reflects a stable outlook on expected earnings multiples.