Update shared on 08 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 15%Analysts have reduced their price target for Fox Factory Holding from approximately $33 to $28.14. They cite weaker third-quarter results, lower guidance for fiscal year 2025, and ongoing softness in certain business segments, despite continued strength in others.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst updates provide insight into both the potential and risks facing Fox Factory Holding after its latest quarterly report and revised guidance. The following perspectives reflect the differing stances among market watchers:
Bullish Takeaways- Some analysts highlight ongoing strength in the Powered Vehicles Group. New motorcycle suspension offerings could bolster segment growth and support top-line momentum.
- The Aftermarket Accessories Group remains a positive contributor due to elevated aftermarket demand, helping partially offset softness in other areas.
- Expansion in innovation and diversified product lines continues to be viewed as a potential engine for long-term growth, even amid near-term industry headwinds.
- Bearish analysts have reduced their price targets following disappointing third-quarter earnings and a reduction in fiscal 2025 guidance. They express concerns over earnings stability.
- There is notable softness in the Specialty Sports Group, with both Bike and Marucci businesses facing reduced orders as retailers prioritize careful inventory management.
- Uncertainty around end-market demand and lingering inventory corrections are seen as ongoing hurdles to a near-term recovery and valuation upside.
What's in the News
- The full-year 2025 earnings outlook has been lowered, with net sales now expected between $1.445 billion and $1.475 billion, down from previous guidance of up to $1.51 billion (Key Developments).
- Fourth quarter 2025 earnings guidance has been revised, with net sales projected in the $340 million to $370 million range. This reflects a shift toward the lower end of earlier expectations (Key Developments).
- The company announced the aftermarket launch of Live Valve, an advanced semi-active suspension system for trucks and Jeeps. The system features real-time terrain response and over-the-air connectivity, and will be available starting in early 2026 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: Lowered from $33 to approximately $28.14. This reflects a notable decrease in fair value expectations.
- Discount Rate: Increased from 9.36% to 10.36%. This indicates a higher perceived risk profile for future cash flows.
- Revenue Growth: Reduced from 6.07% to 4.31%. This suggests tempered expectations for top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Improved from 4.78% to 5.48%. This demonstrates a modest increase in expected profitability.
- Future P/E: Decreased from 22.03x to 17.50x. This signals a lower valuation on anticipated earnings.
Disclaimer
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