Analysts have marginally raised TSMC's price target to NT$1375, citing sustained AI-driven demand, advanced-node leadership, and resilience to near-term headwinds.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts are raising price targets based on continued strength in AI-related demand, with significant silicon content growth and custom HBM base die transitions supporting ambitious $90B AI revenue targets by 2029.
- The N2 (2nm) platform is seen as a key long-term catalyst, with anticipation that TSMC will drive leading-edge semiconductor spending through upcoming technology cycles as peers face transition years.
- Near-term headwinds include foreign exchange impacts and a weaker smartphone end market, though these are viewed as being offset by robust AI momentum.
- Analysts recognize that TSMC's advanced-node manufacturing remains superior to competitors and positions TSMC as the prime manufacturing partner for companies like Intel seeking to regain competitiveness against AMD, Nvidia, and Arm.
- Some weakening industry forecasts for capital equipment spending are noted, as future upside is expected to be driven predominantly by TSMC’s 2nm and 3nm nodes, with less contribution from other foundry rivals in the near term.
What's in the News
- The U.S. revoked TSMC's (TSM) validated end user (VEU) status for its Nanjing site, raising uncertainty over uninterrupted shipments of essential gear to its main Chinese facility (Bloomberg).
- TSMC is eliminating Chinese chipmaking equipment from its most advanced factories to avoid potential U.S. restrictions, amid broader U.S. moves to tighten export controls on allied chip plants in China (Nikkei, WSJ).
- Prosecutors in Taiwan indicted three individuals for allegedly stealing sensitive TSMC chipmaking technology for Tokyo Electron (TOELY), and TSMC has launched legal actions in response to multiple internal trade secret breaches (WSJ, FT, Reuters).
- TSMC will phase out 6-inch wafer manufacturing over two years as part of efforts to consolidate and improve efficiency in older production nodes (Reuters).
- TSMC reached a $1 trillion market cap in Taipei, propelled by strong AI chip demand, making it the first Asian company to hit this milestone since PetroChina in 2007 (Bloomberg).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from NT$1370 to NT$1375.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing remained effectively unchanged, at 16.3% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 20.62x to 20.66x.
Disclaimer
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