Update shared on12 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 13%NLB Banka H1 2025 Update: Steady Progress with a Conservative Long-Term Outlook
NLB Banka continues to advance steadily toward its ambitious 2030 vision of becoming the leading financial institution in Southeastern Europe. In H1 2025, the Bank reported a net profit of €274 million, reflecting solid profitability amid a cautious macroeconomic environment marked by moderate interest rate pressures and regional uncertainties.
The loan portfolio grew by 14% year-on-year, driven primarily by disciplined expansion in the SME and retail segments. Digital channels now account for approximately 58% of new business origination, underscoring the ongoing success of the Bank’s digital transformation initiatives.
Operationally, the Bank is focused on improving efficiency while balancing necessary investments, with the cost-to-income ratio estimated around 47% for 2025. The M&A pipeline remains active but cautious, emphasizing prudent capital allocation amid evolving regional dynamics.
Conservative Valuation Outlook to 2030
Reflecting this cautious optimism, the following conservative valuation assumptions have been applied:
- EPS growth (CAGR 2025–2030): 3.0%
- P/E multiple in 2030: 6.5x
This yields a projected EPS of €29.49 in 2030, translating into a share price target of approximately €191.69. This implies a moderate upside of about 15% over five years, consistent with steady organic growth and measured market expansion while maintaining a stable valuation multiple.
With disciplined execution, strong capital buffers, and a scalable digital platform, NLB Banka remains well-positioned to navigate the challenges ahead and steadily progress toward its 2030 targets. Investors should view this valuation as a baseline in a dynamic regional environment, with upside potential should growth accelerate or valuation multiples expand.
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