Update shared on 18 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 38%Analysts have lowered their price target on Starbreeze from SEK 0.45 to SEK 0.28, citing higher required returns despite stronger expectations for revenue growth and profit margins, as well as a substantially lower assumed future P E multiple.
What's in the News
- Launch of PAYDAY 3 Skills 2.0 update on PC and consoles, delivering a rebuilt, theme driven skill system with 51 spendable points and deeper build customization across roles and weapon types (Key Developments)
- Introduction of a web based Skills 2.0 Simulator, enabling players to pre plan, save, and share PAYDAY 3 builds while providing developers with data for balance tuning (Key Developments)
- Non cash impairment of approximately SEK 255 million in Q3 2025, tied to write downs of previously capitalized development costs to refocus investment on higher value projects (Key Developments)
- Launch of a PAYDAY 2 subscription on Steam, offering access to more than 65 DLCs for a recurring fee, with discounted multi month pricing and a deep discount on the base game for new players (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has been reduced significantly from SEK 0.45 to SEK 0.28 per share, despite stronger operational assumptions.
- The Discount Rate has risen slightly from 7.38 percent to 7.63 percent, implying a higher required return from investors.
- Revenue Growth has increased materially in the model from 9.43 percent to 18.27 percent, reflecting more optimistic topline expectations.
- The Net Profit Margin has been raised substantially from 15.78 percent to 25.38 percent, indicating higher anticipated profitability.
- The Future P E Multiple has been cut sharply from 25.5x to 7.3x, driving a large part of the downgrade in the valuation outcome.
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