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HEM: Market Share Resilience Will Drive Medium Term Cash Flow Stability

Update shared on 24 Nov 2025

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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-48.8%
7D
-4.9%

Analysts have lowered their average price target for Hemnet Group, reflecting a cautious outlook after recent adjustments by major banks, with targets dropping from the SEK 256 to 370 range down to SEK 245 to 345, citing a more moderate growth profile and margin outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates reflect a nuanced view among analysts regarding Hemnet Group's performance outlook and valuation.

Bullish Takeaways

  • Despite a series of price target reductions, some analysts continue to support Neutral or Equal Weight ratings. This suggests a belief in Hemnet Group's underlying market position and business model.
  • The company's strong digital platform is viewed as a competitive advantage. This is seen as underpinning resilience in challenging market conditions.
  • Valuations, although lowered, still recognize Hemnet Group's potential for stabilized margin growth over the medium term.
  • Analysts note that Hemnet maintains a significant share of Sweden's residential property listing market. This supports expectations for ongoing cash flow generation.

Bearish Takeaways

  • Multiple downward price target revisions demonstrate concerns about a more moderate growth trajectory and pressure on profit margins going forward.
  • Cautious sentiment is reinforced by expectations of slower execution on growth initiatives and tempered revenue expansion amid broad property market uncertainty.
  • Analysts highlight that the recent adjustments come in the context of sustained macroeconomic headwinds, which could weigh on transaction volumes and listing activity.
  • Overall, there is increased skepticism regarding the pace at which Hemnet Group can improve operational leverage and return to higher growth rates.

What's in the News

  • Hemnet Group completed its announced share buyback program by repurchasing a total of 812,500 shares since May 2025. This amounts to 0.85% of the company for SEK 223.2 million (Key Developments).
  • Between July 1, 2025 and September 30, 2025, the company repurchased 560,000 shares for SEK 148.6 million, representing 0.59% of outstanding shares (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • The Fair Value Estimate remained unchanged at SEK 294.4.
  • The Discount Rate increased slightly from 6.31% to 6.32%.
  • The Revenue Growth projection held steady at approximately 18.4%.
  • The Net Profit Margin experienced a marginal decline from 42.49% to 42.49%.
  • The future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio rose moderately from 29.25x to 29.58x.

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.