Update shared on 30 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.75%Holmen's analyst price target has been adjusted downward by approximately SEK 2.78 to reflect updated market assumptions and more cautious revenue growth projections, according to recent analyst commentary.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst commentary reflects a nuanced outlook on Holmen, as price targets were adjusted downward while maintaining neutral or underweight ratings. The following are key takeaways from their analysis:
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts note that Holmen retains a stable market position. This suggests the company has continued resilience amid industry challenges.
- Some see potential for operational improvements to drive future value, particularly if management is able to execute on efficiency gains.
- Although price targets have been lowered, they still indicate confidence in Holmen's ability to navigate the current market environment.
- Despite cautious sentiment, analysts recognize there may be upside if revenue growth exceeds revised projections.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts express concerns about the pace of revenue growth, leading to more conservative valuation assumptions.
- There is increased caution regarding prevailing macroeconomic conditions, which could impact demand and pricing power for Holmen's core products.
- Lowered price targets reflect the view that upside may be limited in the near term due to execution risks.
- Skepticism remains about whether cost controls and efficiency measures will be sufficient to offset softer top-line expansion.
What's in the News
- Holmen completed its share buyback program announced on May 3, 2023. The company repurchased a total of 8,697,649 shares, representing 5.48% of the company, for SEK 3,505.32 million. The most recent tranche, carried out between July 1 and September 30, 2025, involved the repurchase of 1,176,762 shares for SEK 434.12 million (Key Developments).
- The company launched Holmen Elevate, a new lightweight kraftliner available in 72, 82, and 92 gsm, designed for e-commerce, shelf-ready, and food packaging. The product is noted for its low carbon footprint, with CO2 emissions 80% below the European average in its sector, and is produced from fresh, sustainably sourced fibres at the Braviken Paper Mill in Sweden (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value has decreased slightly, falling from SEK 369.22 to SEK 366.44.
- Discount Rate has risen modestly, increasing from 6.43% to 6.48%.
- Revenue Growth expectation is virtually unchanged, with an immaterial decrease from 0.53% to 0.53%.
- Net Profit Margin is stable, remaining at 11.76%.
- Future P/E has edged up marginally, moving from 22.99x to 23.01x.
Disclaimer
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