Update shared on 01 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 3.93%Holmen’s fair value estimate was revised downward from SEK 384.44 to SEK 369.33. Analysts cite moderating revenue growth and margin pressures, as reflected in recent price target adjustments by major institutions.
Analyst Commentary
Recent adjustments to Holmen's price targets by major financial institutions have prompted a closer look at the varied perspectives among market analysts. Insights reflect both optimism and caution with respect to the company's future performance.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts continue to see long-term potential in Holmen's diversified business segments, which may help cushion the impact of market volatility.
- Stable operational execution and prudent cost management have supported the company's ability to maintain its Neutral ratings, despite broader industry headwinds.
- The current valuation, though revised downward, still reflects confidence in Holmen's capacity to adapt to changing demand trends within its core markets.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts have highlighted sustained pressures on margins as a key concern, particularly amid slower revenue growth in recent quarters.
- Lowered price targets point to caution regarding Holmen's near-term growth prospects, with expectations for muted earnings improvements.
- Recent adjustments suggest concerns that external market factors, such as input cost inflation and demand normalization, could continue to challenge overall performance.
- Some analysts have maintained underweight ratings, which underscores skepticism about the pace of recovery within the sector and Holmen's relative valuation compared to peers.
What's in the News
- Holmen has developed Holmen Elevate, the lightest kraftliner on the market, manufactured at Braviken Paper Mill in Sweden. The product targets sustainability and performance with CO2 emissions 80% below the European industry average, using fresh fibres from sustainably managed forests (Key Developments).
- From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, Holmen repurchased 1,176,762 shares, representing 0.76% for SEK 434.12 million. This completed the repurchase of 8,697,649 shares (5.48%) under the ongoing buyback announced in May 2023 (Key Developments).
- Between April 1, 2025 and June 30, 2025, Holmen repurchased 1,823,238 shares for SEK 743.88 million as part of its ongoing share buyback program (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has decreased from SEK 384.44 to SEK 369.33, reflecting a downward revision of approximately 4%.
- Discount Rate has edged down slightly from 6.47% to 6.45%.
- Revenue Growth Forecast has fallen significantly from 1.41% to 0.57%.
- Net Profit Margin has declined from 12.63% to 11.74%.
- Future P/E Ratio has risen from 22.05x to 23.02x. This indicates higher valuation expectations relative to projected earnings.
Disclaimer
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