Update shared on 30 Nov 2025
Analysts have raised their price target for Saab to SEK 460 from SEK 430. They cite continued concerns about valuation alongside high expectations for defense spending.
Analyst Commentary
Recent street research has highlighted differing perspectives on Saab's outlook, particularly around valuation and future growth prospects. The price target increase has generated both optimism and caution among analysts, with a predominant focus on the company's execution and market position.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have increased their price target for Saab, indicating confidence in future market opportunities driven by anticipated growth in defense spending.
- The company is seen as well positioned to capture upside from ongoing sector demand trends, supporting upward earnings revisions.
- Raising targets points to strong execution in recent quarters and resilience in a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.
- Bearish analysts continue to highlight Saab's high valuation, cautioning that the current stock price already reflects much of the anticipated growth in defense spending.
- Saab's relatively small scale compared to global peers is viewed as a limiting factor for long-term expansion and resilience.
- Concerns remain around the company's stretched multiples, increasing the risk of downside if expectations for execution or defense budgets are not met.
- There are warnings that the premium valuation could compress if sector momentum slows or if Saab underdelivers against high investor expectations.
What's in the News
- Saab received an order worth approximately SEK 2.1 billion from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration for sensors and command and control systems for ground-based air defence, with deliveries scheduled for 2027 to 2028 (Key Developments).
- Ericsson Canada, Saab, and Calian signed a Memorandum of Understanding to explore advanced, secure, and resilient communication systems for Canada's defence modernization and public safety (Key Developments).
- Saab signed a EUR 3.1 billion contract with the Colombian Government for 17 Gripen E/F fighter aircraft, including a comprehensive package spanning aeronautics, cyber security, and sustainable energy projects (Key Developments).
- Saab secured two orders from Airbus Defence and Space worth a combined EUR 549 million to deliver the Arexis Electronic Warfare sensor suite for German Eurofighters (Key Developments).
- Saab upgraded its 2025 earnings guidance, now forecasting organic sales growth of 20 to 24 percent, up from the previous outlook of 16 to 20 percent, and reaffirmed its positive operational cash flow expectations (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value estimate remains unchanged at SEK 481.
- Discount Rate has increased slightly from 5.64% to 5.65%.
- Revenue Growth forecast is steady at 17.46%.
- Net Profit Margin projection remains unchanged at 8.10%.
- Future P/E multiple has decreased slightly from 32.57x to 32.40x.
Disclaimer
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