Update shared on 16 Nov 2025
Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Saab to SEK 460, citing the company's resilient revenue growth outlook. However, they caution that a premium valuation continues to limit upside potential.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst updates reflect a mixture of optimism and caution regarding Saab's valuation and future prospects. The following summarizes key viewpoints from recent research commentary.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts have increased their price targets modestly, reflecting confidence in Saab’s continued revenue growth trajectory.
- The company’s outlook benefits from expectations of higher defense spending, supporting a resilient demand environment.
- Steady operational execution and order intake reinforce sentiment that Saab can sustain solid financial performance in the near term.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts highlight that Saab’s shares already price in much of the anticipated growth and defense sector tailwinds, leaving limited room for further upside.
- Saab’s comparatively small scale and premium valuation are flagged as risks that could limit share appreciation.
- Concerns remain about the company’s stretched valuation and whether execution can fully deliver on current investor expectations.
What's in the News
- Saab signed a SEK 510 million contract with the Danish Ministry of Defence Acquisition and Logistics Organisation for Carl-Gustaf M4 weapon systems, including ammunition and training equipment. Deliveries are scheduled for 2026 to 2028. (Client Announcements)
- The company received an order valued at SEK 1 billion from the Swedish Defence Materiel Agency for a new launch system for Gripen C/D and E fighter aircraft to carry air-to-air missiles and countermeasure pods. (Client Announcements)
- Saab announced improved 2025 earnings guidance, now expecting organic sales growth of 20 to 24 percent, up from an earlier range of 16 to 20 percent. EBIT growth is projected to exceed sales growth. (Corporate Guidance Raised)
- Saab revealed Nimbrix, its first dedicated Counter-Unmanned Aerial System (C-UAS) missile designed to address drone threats. First deliveries are planned for 2026. (Product-Related Announcements)
- As part of a new joint venture, Saab joined leading Swedish companies to launch Sferical AI. This company will operate a sovereign AI supercomputer for advancing national industry competitiveness. (Business Expansions)
Valuation Changes
- The consensus analyst price target remains unchanged at SEK 481, despite updated analysis.
- The discount rate has fallen slightly from 5.82 percent to 5.64 percent, indicating a modest decrease in perceived risk.
- Revenue growth expectations have risen marginally from 17.38 percent to 17.46 percent.
- Net profit margin is virtually unchanged, edging down from 8.11 percent to 8.10 percent.
- The future P/E multiple has declined a bit, moving from 32.74x to 32.57x.
Disclaimer
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