NPH: Rising Dividends And Stable Margins Will Support Steady Future Returns

Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Napier Port Holdings from $3.72 to $3.72, reflecting slightly lower discount rate assumptions and a maintained view on long term growth and profitability.

What's in the News

• Napier Port Holdings declared a fully imputed final 2025 dividend of $16 million, or $0.08 per share, payable on 16 December to shareholders on the register as at 3 December (company announcement).
• Total dividends for the 2025 financial year will rise to $29 million, or $0.145 per share, up from $0.09 per share in 2024, signalling a stronger capital return profile (company announcement).
• For the year ended 30 September 2025, total container volumes increased 9.1% to 250,000 TEU, with full container volumes up 7.3% and empty and other container movements up 11.2% (company results).
• In the fourth quarter, total container volumes declined 3.3% to 57,000 TEU, as full container volumes fell 5.4% while empty and other container movements were broadly flat, down 0.2% (company results).
• Bulk cargo volumes rose 11.9% in the fourth quarter to 0.9 million tonnes but were down 1.7% for the full year at 3.4 million tonnes, reflecting mixed demand across cargo categories (company results).

Valuation Changes

• The fair value estimate has been maintained at NZ$3.72 per share, indicating no change in the analyst’s central valuation.
• The discount rate has fallen slightly from 7.32 percent to 7.24 percent, modestly reducing the level of risk assumed in the valuation.
• The revenue growth assumption is effectively unchanged at around 6.74 percent per annum, signalling a stable outlook for top-line expansion.
• The net profit margin forecast remains steady at approximately 22.66 percent, reflecting a consistent view on long-term profitability.
• The future P/E multiple has eased marginally from 20.31x to 20.27x, indicating a slightly lower valuation multiple applied to forecast earnings.