MOWI: Future Harvest Volumes And Dividends Will Offset Downgrade And Execution Risks

Analysts have raised their price target on Mowi by approximately NOK 10 to around NOK 257 per share, reflecting a modestly higher fair value despite slightly softer growth and margin assumptions and a recent downgrade to Hold.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts acknowledge that Mowi remains a high quality salmon producer with solid fundamentals, but the recent downgrade to Hold and modest price target increase signal a more balanced risk reward profile.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that the higher price target still implies some upside from current levels, suggesting the market has not fully priced in Mowi's long term cash generation.
• They point to Mowi's scale, integrated value chain, and strong brand portfolio as supportive of resilient margins even if sector conditions soften.
• The company's disciplined capital allocation and dividend capacity are seen as key supports to total shareholder return, underpinning the revised fair value.
• Visibility on demand for farmed salmon and constrained global supply continues to be viewed as a structural tailwind for Mowi's medium term growth.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts argue that softer growth and margin assumptions reduce the scope for meaningful upside, justifying a Hold stance despite the higher target price.
• They flag operational and biological risks, including cost inflation and potential production disruptions, as constraints on execution and profitability.
• The current valuation multiple is seen as leaving limited room for error, with any negative surprises on volumes or prices likely to compress the upside.
• There is concern that sector regulation and potential changes to tax regimes could cap long term earnings expansion and weigh on Mowi's relative premium.

What's in the News

• Mowi raised its 2025 harvest volume guidance from 545,000 to 554,000 tonnes, mainly from consolidating Nova Sea in the fourth quarter. This implies 10.5% growth from 2024. The company also guided for 605,000 tonnes in 2026, up 9.2% from 2025, with 380,000 tonnes to be harvested in Norway (Key Developments).
• The Board approved a quarterly dividend distribution of NOK 1.50 per share, with shares trading including dividend up to 13 November 2025, excluding dividend from 14 November, record date on 17 November, and expected payment on 24 November 2025 (Key Developments).
• Mowi was added to the Euronext 150 Index, signaling increased visibility among European equity investors (Key Developments).
• Mowi was removed from another, unspecified index, highlighting ongoing changes in its benchmark exposure (Key Developments).
• The company called a special shareholders meeting for 20 November 2025 to elect a new board of directors and address other corporate matters (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Increased modestly from approximately NOK 248 to around NOK 257 per share, reflecting a slightly higher long term valuation.
• Discount Rate: Unchanged at about 6.34%, indicating a stable view on Mowi's risk profile and cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth: Trimmed slightly from roughly 9.88% to about 9.56% annually, signaling a marginally more cautious top line outlook.
• Net Profit Margin: Eased slightly from around 18.23% to approximately 17.94%, implying a modestly softer profitability assumption.
• Future P/E: Edged up from about 9.62x to roughly 10.02x, suggesting a small increase in the multiple applied to forward earnings.