MOWI: Future Margins And Harvest Volumes Will Balance Downgrade And Pricing Risks

Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Mowi from approximately NOK 243 to NOK 248, reflecting expectations of stronger profit margins and a lower future P/E multiple, even as top-line growth assumptions are trimmed and one major firm shifts to a more cautious Hold stance.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst sentiment around Mowi has become more balanced, with the recent downgrade to Hold signaling that upside from current levels may be more limited even as fundamentals remain broadly solid.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts see the modestly higher price target as evidence that improving margins and cost discipline can still support attractive earnings power despite tempered revenue expectations.
• They argue that a lower projected P/E multiple already prices in many operational and macro risks, leaving room for upside if execution on volume growth and efficiency programs exceeds the current baseline.
• Supportive demand trends for premium salmon products and tighter long term supply dynamics are viewed as structural tailwinds that could underpin cash flow generation and shareholder returns.
• Some expect that continued focus on capital allocation and disciplined capacity expansion can translate into a more resilient earnings profile through the cycle.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts highlight that the downgrade to Hold reflects a more cautious stance on near term share price performance, with limited re rating potential after the recent move in the stock.
• They point to trimmed top line growth assumptions and potential volatility in salmon prices as key risks that may constrain margin expansion and lead to earnings disappointments versus current forecasts.
• Concerns also focus on execution risk around cost control and biological challenges, which could pressure profitability and justify keeping valuation closer to historical averages.
• Some caution that, in a higher rate environment, investors may demand a larger discount for cyclical and commodity exposed names, which could cap the multiple and keep risk reward more balanced.

What's in the News

• Mowi raised its 2025 harvest volume guidance from 545,000 to 554,000 tonnes, largely due to consolidating Nova Sea from the fourth quarter. This implies 10.5% growth from 2024. The company also guided for 605,000 tonnes in 2026, up 9.2% from the current year, with 380,000 tonnes from Norway (company guidance).
• The board approved a quarterly dividend distribution of NOK 1.50 per share, with the shares trading including dividend up to and including 13 November 2025, excluding dividend from 14 November 2025, record date on 17 November 2025, and expected payment on 24 November 2025 (company announcement).
• Mowi was added to the Euronext 150 Index, enhancing its visibility among European institutional investors (index announcement).
• Mowi was removed from another, unspecified index shortly before the Euronext 150 inclusion, signaling a reshuffle in its benchmark representation (index announcement).
• Mowi called a special shareholders meeting for 20 November 2025 to elect a new board of directors and address other governance items (company notice).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Raised slightly from NOK 242.97 to NOK 247.65, reflecting a modest upward revision in estimated intrinsic value.
• Discount Rate: Held unchanged at 6.34 percent, indicating no reassessment of Mowi's risk profile or cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth: Reduced from 11.38 percent to 9.88 percent, signaling a more cautious outlook on top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin: Increased meaningfully from 14.44 percent to 18.23 percent, pointing to improved expectations for profitability.
• Future P/E: Lowered from 11.43x to 9.62x, suggesting a more conservative valuation multiple despite higher margin assumptions.