Update shared on31 Aug 2025
Fair value Decreased 39%Q2 2025 Update
- Cadeler reported very strong revenue growth in H1, with EUR 298 million (vs. EUR 82 million in the prior year), including a one-off payment of EUR 110–120 million related to the Ørsted cancellation. Excluding this one-off effect, year-on-year growth exceeded 100%.
- Management has raised its full-year revenue guidance (including the Ørsted cancellation) to a range of EUR 588–628 million. In addition, EBITDA guidance for FY 2025 has been revised upwards to EUR 381–421 million.
- The Company noted some delays in new projects commencing in 2027–2028. However, Investor Relations clarified that this does not reflect a contracting market but rather a shift in timing:"[.....] In short, we do expect to be able to maintain and even to grow our current backlog over the coming years. Our most-recently disclosed backlog figures were stable quarter-on-quarter even accounting for the suspension of the Hornsea 4 project by Orsted (and the cancellation of the related long term agreement for an A-class vessel, with several hundred million euros removed from the backlog). You should therefore think of our messaging around 2027-8 as relevant more to the rate of revenue/margin growth during that period than to revenue/backlog stability."This supports the Catalyst thesis set out below.
Changes to the valuation model.
- Given the adjusted revenue outlook, I increase expected revenue growth from 27% to 30%, projecting that Cadeler will reach EUR 1 billion in rolling-12 revenue around mid-2028, after which growth is expected to slow.Exceptional high margins are expected to normalize as indicated in the IR response above (although analysts still forecast 30–40%), and I reduce the net margin assumption from 27% to 22%.Overall, the stock remains very attractively valued, trading below 10x PE – still a compelling buy.
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