Update shared on 18 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.02%The analyst price target for Grupo México increased modestly from MXN 149.46 to MXN 149.43. Analysts cited strong metals prices and supply disruptions, but tempered expectations due to valuation concerns and project delays.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research provides a balanced view of Grupo México, with both optimism and caution reflected in the analyst community.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts have raised price targets, citing the surge in precious metal prices, especially copper. This increase is benefiting from ongoing supply disruptions and robust global demand.
- Expectations for strong EBITDA growth in 2025-26 have been updated upward, as improved pricing environments for copper and gold support future earnings potential.
- The company's diversified operations and exposure to highly profitable metals position it well to capitalize on favorable commodity cycles.
- Ongoing investment in core projects is expected to drive execution and enhance Grupo México's long-term valuation prospects.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts have highlighted ongoing project delays, such as the Tia Maria project. These delays could potentially weigh on earnings growth through 2027 and 2028.
- Valuation concerns persist, with the stock's recent re-rating leading some to believe a discount is warranted until execution risks resolve.
- Uncertainty around major acquisitions and strategic moves, such as the bid for Banamex, is viewed as a potential reason for additional valuation discount in the near term.
- Upgrades to price targets have at times been accompanied by downgrades to ratings, underscoring a cautious approach to near-term upside versus mid-term headwinds.
Valuation Changes
- The consensus analyst price target edged down marginally to MX$149.43 from MX$149.46.
- The discount rate increased moderately to 16.33% from 15.71%.
- The revenue growth projection remained nearly unchanged at approximately 3.83%.
- The net profit margin held steady, with a minimal decrease from 26.90% to 26.89%.
- The future P/E ratio rose modestly to 19.69x from 19.14x.
Disclaimer
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