Grupo México's analyst price target has been raised from MXN 143.83 to MXN 149.46, as analysts highlight improved commodity price outlooks along with adjusted revenue and profit margin expectations.

Analyst Commentary

• Bullish analysts have increased their price targets for Grupo México, reflecting optimistic expectations for strong commodity pricing, particularly in copper and gold.
• Recent upward revisions to earnings estimates and EBITDA forecasts signal confidence in the company’s growth and execution capacity over the next two years.
• Ongoing supply disruptions in key metals have supported higher prices. Copper has significantly outperformed other base and bulk materials, benefiting Grupo México’s core mining business.
• The company’s subsidiaries are also expected to benefit, as spillover effects from strengthened pricing are anticipated to bolster group-wide financial results.

• Bearish analysts have issued several downgrades on valuation concerns, citing that recent share price appreciation may have outpaced forward-looking fundamentals.
• The Tia Maria project delay is expected to negatively impact earnings in 2027 and 2028, raising uncertainties around execution and project delivery.
• Grupo México’s bid for Banamex is seen as a potential source of risk, with concerns that it could further widen the company’s valuation discount in the near term.
• Some caution that the current environment could limit further upside. They highlight that a re-rating has already adjusted much of the positive commodity outlook into the stock price.

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from MX$143.83 to MX$149.46, reflecting updated market assessments.
• Discount Rate increased marginally from 15.68% to 15.71%.
• Revenue Growth expectations have fallen from 4.33% to 3.83%.
• Net Profit Margin is up modestly from 26.29% to 26.90%.
• Future P/E ratio has declined slightly from 19.27x to 19.14x.