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7181: Buybacks And Dividend Increase Will Support Steady Shareholder Returns

7181: Future Earnings And Reinsurance Initiative Will Support Measured Upside Potential

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7181
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 20 Jul 2025

Update shared on 03 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 0.78%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
48.3%
7D
0.9%

Analysts have raised their price target on Japan Post Insurance slightly, from ¥4,281.67 to ¥4,315.00, citing incremental improvements in projected profit margins and a modestly higher future earnings multiple, while growth and discount rate assumptions remain largely unchanged.

What's in the News

  • The Board of Directors authorized a new share buyback plan on November 14, 2025, signaling confidence in the company and a focus on shareholder returns (Key Developments).
  • The company announced a share repurchase program of up to 20,000,000 shares, or about 5.38 of issued share capital, for ¥4,000 million, with the program running until March 31, 2026 (Key Developments).
  • The company raised the second quarter dividend to JPY 62.00 per share from JPY 52.00 a year earlier, with payment scheduled for December 5, 2025 (Key Developments).
  • The company upgraded full year guidance for the year ending March 31, 2026, now expecting net income of JPY 159,000 million and EPS of JPY 427.95, driven by higher investment income and lower operating expenses (Key Developments).
  • The Board will meet on November 14, 2025 to consider treasury stock acquisition under the Articles of Incorporation and via the ToSTNeT-3 off auction share repurchase system (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has risen slightly, increasing from ¥4,281.67 to ¥4,315.00, reflecting a modest uplift in intrinsic value.
  • The discount rate remains unchanged at 4.8 percent, indicating no shift in the assumed risk profile or cost of capital.
  • Revenue growth expectations have edged down slightly, from 32.14 percent to 31.98 percent, suggesting a marginally more conservative top line outlook.
  • The net profit margin has risen slightly, from 2.30 percent to 2.33 percent, driven by incremental improvements in expected profitability.
  • The future P/E multiple has inched higher, from 10.94x to 10.98x, implying a modestly higher valuation being applied to forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.