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IDEA: Future Returns Will Stay Limited By Government Liability Overhang

Update shared on 19 Dec 2025

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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
58.6%
7D
4.4%

Narrative Update on Analyst Price Target

Analysts have made a modest upward revision to their price target on Vodafone Idea, citing slightly lower discount rates, marginally improved long term profit margin expectations, and a marginally cheaper projected future P E multiple that together enhance the stock's risk reward profile. This nudges fair value closer to ₹8.90 per share.

What's in the News

  • Tillman Global Holdings is in negotiations to invest $4 billion to $6 billion in Vodafone Idea and assume promoter control, contingent on a comprehensive government package to restructure the telco's AGR and spectrum liabilities (M&A discussions).
  • Vodafone Idea renewed a three year partnership with Kyndryl to modernize IT operations, strengthen cyber resilience and deploy an AI driven, zero touch IT operations model aimed at improving service delivery and reducing costs (Client announcement).
  • The board has scheduled a meeting on November 10, 2025 to review Q2 and half year FY26 financial results and to consider investing in a 26 percent stake in a captive power plant SPV to meet regulatory captive consumption requirements (Board meeting).
  • A special shareholders meeting via postal ballot on November 11, 2025 will seek approval for the appointment of Abhijit Kishore as Chief Executive Officer, following an earlier board meeting that cleared the draft postal ballot notice (Shareholder and board actions).
  • Vodafone Idea appointed Tejas Mehta, a chartered accountant with over 25 years of global finance experience at Mondelez and Marico, as Chief Financial Officer effective October 6, 2025, succeeding outgoing CFO Murthy Gvas (Executive change).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: Remains unchanged at approximately ₹8.88 per share, indicating no revision to the central valuation estimate.
  • Discount Rate: Has fallen slightly from about 13.17 percent to 13.02 percent, reflecting a marginally lower perceived risk profile.
  • Revenue Growth: Is effectively stable, edging up insignificantly from around 10.56 percent to 10.56 percent, implying no meaningful change in top line expectations.
  • Net Profit Margin: Has risen slightly from about 18.98 percent to 18.99 percent, signaling a modest improvement in long term profitability assumptions.
  • Future P E: Has declined marginally from roughly 15.06 times to 14.99 times, indicating a slightly cheaper valuation multiple applied to future earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.