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NOCIL: Softer Margins And Slower Demand Will Pressure Future Returns

Chinese Dumping And EV Shifts Will Shrink Profitability

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NOCIL
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 10 Jul 2025

Update shared on 14 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 6.35%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-42.3%
7D
-3.8%

Analysts have trimmed their price target for NOCIL from ₹126 to ₹118 as they factor in slightly slower revenue growth expectations, softer margin forecasts, and a higher implied future P/E multiple.

What's in the News

  • Board meeting scheduled on October 31, 2025 at 14:30 IST to review and approve unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results for the quarter and half year ended September 30, 2025 (company filing)
  • Management to present the limited review report, statement of assets and liabilities, and cash flow statement for the half year ended September 30, 2025 (company filing)
  • The agenda also includes consideration of other routine and strategic business items that may be taken up during the meeting (company filing)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate trimmed from ₹126 to ₹118, reflecting a modestly more cautious outlook on near term performance.
  • Discount Rate reduced slightly from 13.45 percent to 13.34 percent, indicating a marginally lower perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
  • Revenue Growth assumption lowered from about 10.15 percent to about 9.32 percent, pointing to a slightly slower expected growth trajectory.
  • Net Profit Margin forecast reduced more noticeably from about 10.39 percent to about 8.56 percent, implying softer margin expectations.
  • Future P/E multiple increased from about 16.60 times to about 18.83 times, indicating a higher valuation being applied to projected earnings despite trimmed fundamentals.

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Disclaimer

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