Update shared on 18 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 24%ALSA And WeDriveU Will Improve Future Prospects
Narrative Update: Mobico Group Analyst Price Target Revision
Analysts have revised their price target for Mobico Group downward from 35 GBp to 30 GBp. This change reflects updated financial projections and sector performance expectations.
Analyst Commentary
As analysts update their views on Mobico Group, differing perspectives emerge regarding the company's valuation, growth potential, and execution risks.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts note that Mobico's resilient business model supports stable earnings performance, even in the face of industry headwinds.
- They highlight that the company maintains a strong presence in core transport markets, which could fuel recovery and long-term growth.
- Some positive sentiment surrounds management's continued initiatives to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs.
- Some analysts view valuation as reasonable, with potential upside if sector conditions improve or the company meets its strategic goals.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts caution that current sector challenges may persist, which could weigh on near-term revenue growth and margin expansion.
- There are concerns about execution risks related to cost-cutting measures, as these may not fully offset increased input and labor costs.
- Some suggest that despite recent share price adjustments, valuation could still be at risk if financial performance does not stabilize quickly.
- Potential macroeconomic uncertainties and market volatility could further delay a meaningful recovery for the company.
What's in the News
- ALSA, a subsidiary of Mobico Group, won an eight-year, €500 million contract in Saudi Arabia to operate Park & Ride facilities and shuttle services for Qiddiya. The contract includes running 156 vehicles, 126 of which are electric, as part of a joint venture with a local company (Client Announcements).
- This new contract expands ALSA's footprint in Saudi Arabia and builds on operations that began in October 2023 providing long-haul, intercity transport in the southern region (Client Announcements).
- Deloitte LLP resigned as Mobico Group’s auditor, with their resignation taking effect on 19 September 2025 (Auditor Changes).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value per share has fallen significantly, decreasing from £0.52 to £0.39.
- Discount Rate remains unchanged at 12.94%.
- Revenue Growth expectations have improved marginally, moving from -3.90% to -3.14%.
- Net Profit Margin has risen substantially, increasing from 2.9% to 6.1%.
- Future P/E ratio has decreased sharply from 5.13x to 1.79x. This indicates lower projected earnings multiples.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.