Update shared on 18 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 1.04%Analysts have modestly increased their fair value estimate for Vodafone Group to £0.89 per share from £0.88. They cite a slightly improved profit margin outlook, continuing premium valuation concerns, and shifting competitive dynamics in key markets.
Analyst Commentary
Recent commentary from the analyst community reflects a mix of optimism about Vodafone's growth prospects and caution about competitive and valuation risks. Their insights highlight the primary drivers behind shifting stock ratings and target prices.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts note a modestly improved profit margin outlook, which slightly boosts fair value expectations for Vodafone shares.
- Some see potential upside to the company’s earnings trajectory if ongoing efficiency initiatives deliver as anticipated.
- Positive price target revisions indicate confidence in Vodafone’s ability to execute its strategy in core markets, despite ongoing industry headwinds.
- Analysts highlight opportunities for incremental revenue gains, particularly if Vodafone successfully leverages infrastructure assets and streamlines its portfolio.
- Bears express concern about Vodafone trading at a premium valuation relative to its free cash flow yield, despite persistent competitive risks.
- Intensifying fiber competition in key markets, particularly Germany, is seen as a threat to market share and profitability.
- Analysts flag the potential for a de-rating of Vantage Towers following anticipated revenue declines in Spain.
- Execution risks remain elevated, with uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of Vodafone’s turnaround measures in a rapidly evolving European telecom landscape.
What's in the News
- Vodafone has adopted a progressive dividend policy following the UK merger, aiming to grow its full-year dividend per share by 2.5%. The interim dividend will be set annually at 50% of the prior full-year dividend. (Company announcement)
- Vodafone and AST SpaceMobile have chosen Germany as the location for their main Satellite Operations Centre. This centre will coordinate satellite broadband coverage for mobile network operators across Europe, with commercial launch expected in 2026. (Company announcement)
- Ericsson and Vodafone entered a five-year strategic partnership to modernize Vodafone's network infrastructure. The partnership will focus on 5G and advanced automation across multiple European and international markets. (Company announcement)
- Telenor Group and Vodafone Group formed a strategic partnership between their procurement arms. This partnership leverages a combined annual spend of over EUR26 billion to unlock savings, enhance supply chain resilience, and promote ESG leadership. (Company announcement)
- Telefónica is reportedly considering the possible acquisition of Vodafone's Spanish unit, with support from major shareholders and subject to regulatory approvals. (Media report)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from £0.88 to £0.89 per share.
- Discount Rate has fallen notably from 8.4% to 7.7%, indicating a lower perceived risk profile.
- Revenue Growth forecast has dropped significantly from 3.1% to 1.2% per year.
- Net Profit Margin is expected to improve from 5.0% to 5.7%.
- Future P/E ratio has edged up from 12.7x to 12.9x. This reflects a marginally higher valuation multiple.
Disclaimer
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