Update shared on 01 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 2.02%Serica Energy’s analyst price target has been raised from £2.41 to £2.46, as analysts cite improved forecasts for revenue growth and profit margin.
What's in the News
- Production at the Triton FPSO resumed after a temporary suspension caused by an issue with the flare system. Output is ramping up to over 25,000 boepd net to Serica. (Company announcement)
- An earlier flare system issue at the Triton FPSO led to production being suspended from 30 September. Output is expected to remain below the prior 29,000 to 32,000 boepd guidance until the problem is fully resolved. (Company announcement)
- Serica Energy is pursuing additional mergers and acquisitions. The acquisition of Prax Upstream is expected to complete by year end, and two further transactions are anticipated in the first half of 2026. (Company statement)
- The first shipment of oil from the Triton FPSO since resuming production is underway, with wells on Bittern, Evelyn, Gannet E, and Guillemot West fields now online. Further wells are scheduled to start production soon. (Company operational update)
- Serica Energy has reaffirmed its production guidance for 2025 and is maintaining the target range of 33,000 to 35,000 boepd. (Guidance update)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Increased slightly from £2.41 to £2.46 per share.
- Discount Rate: Decreased modestly from 7.10% to 7.04%.
- Revenue Growth: Increased significantly from 12.4% to 17.7%.
- Net Profit Margin: Increased substantially from 6.4% to 38.1%.
- Future P/E: Decreased substantially from 31.6x to 4.6x.
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