BUR: Future Returns Will Be Driven By Argentina Appeal Judgment Outcome

Analysts have modestly increased their price target for Burford Capital to approximately $13.89, up from about $13.58. They cite a slightly higher fair value estimate supported by stable revenue growth assumptions, resilient profit margins, and a marginally higher future earnings multiple, despite a small uptick in the discount rate.

What's in the News

• Burford Capital shares dropped about 10% during a U.S. appeals court hearing on Argentina's challenge to a $16 billion judgment backed by Burford, after judges raised questions about whether the case should have been litigated in Argentina (Bloomberg)
• The company reported no share repurchases between July 1 and September 30, 2025, and confirmed completion of 29,227 shares bought back for approximately £0.38 million under its June 5, 2025 program
• Burford Capital scheduled a September 26, 2025 board meeting to consider declaring an interim dividend of USD 6.25 cents per ordinary share for the 2025 financial year
• Burford Capital was added to the S&P Global BMI Index, increasing its visibility among global index and passive investors

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to approximately $13.89 from about $13.58, reflecting a modest upward revision in the intrinsic valuation.
• The Discount Rate has increased slightly to about 9.20% from roughly 9.12%, indicating a marginally higher required return applied to future cash flows.
• The Revenue Growth Assumption remains effectively unchanged at around 31.0%, suggesting stable expectations for top line expansion.
• The Net Profit Margin Assumption is effectively unchanged at about 58.6%, pointing to continued confidence in the firm’s profitability profile.
• The Future P/E Multiple has risen slightly to approximately 8.6x from about 8.3x, implying a modestly higher valuation multiple on expected earnings.