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AnalystConsensusTarget updated the narrative for BA.

Update shared on 27 Oct 2025

Fair value Increased 2.89%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
28.5%
7D
-5.2%

Analysts have raised their price target for BAE Systems from £20.75 to £21.35. They cite the company's strong defense demand and diversified portfolio as key factors supporting the updated outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts are highlighting several strengths in BAE Systems' outlook based on recent research coverage and price target increases.

Bullish Takeaways
  • Geographically diversified product portfolio is expected to provide resilience and consistent growth opportunities across key markets.
  • Continued strong demand from NATO countries is seen as a key factor supporting sustainable revenue growth and backlog expansion.
  • The current rearmament cycle in Europe is described as the most significant since the Cold War and presents robust long-term growth prospects for the company.
  • Valuation is further supported by robust sector demand and makes BAE Systems attractive to investors seeking exposure to the defense sector.
Bearish Takeaways
  • Some analysts note that high stock valuations across the sector demand a selective approach and could limit near-term upside potential.
  • Execution risks, especially in delivering on a growing backlog, may impact the company's ability to fully capture the forecasted growth.
  • While sector dynamics are favorable, cautious analysts remain mindful of macroeconomic uncertainties that could influence defense budgets over the medium term.

What's in the News

  • The Pentagon is urging missile suppliers, including BAE Systems, to significantly ramp up production amid concerns of potential conflict with China. This follows high-level meetings with defense industry leaders (Wall Street Journal).
  • The U.S. Defense Secretary has called an urgent meeting of top generals at a Marine Corps base in Virginia, with BAE Systems named among key defense contractors involved (Washington Post).
  • China has begun limiting the supply of critical minerals to Western defense firms like BAE Systems, causing production delays and prompting efforts to secure new sources (Wall Street Journal).
  • Boeing and Saab are in discussions with BAE Systems regarding potential replacement of Britain's Hawk trainer aircraft, highlighting ongoing collaboration in defense aviation (Reuters).
  • The U.S. administration is moving to relax arms control restrictions on international sales of advanced military drones. This change could expand opportunities for manufacturers such as BAE Systems (Reuters).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: Has risen slightly from £20.75 to £21.35 per share.
  • Discount Rate: Has increased modestly from 8.16% to 8.24%.
  • Revenue Growth: Improved marginally from 10.04% to 10.08%.
  • Net Profit Margin: Decreased slightly, remaining at 7.64%.
  • Future P/E: Has increased from 27.96x to 28.96x.

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.