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ITM: Future Multiple Expansion Will Likely Outrun Moderating Revenue Outlook

Rising Financing And Geopolitical Risks Will Hamper Hydrogen Infrastructure

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ITM
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 17 Aug 2025

Update shared on 12 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 33%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
86.3%
7D
2.2%

Analysts have lifted their price target for ITM Power from 0.40 to 0.53, citing a higher fair value assessment despite moderating revenue growth expectations and a richer future earnings multiple.

What's in the News

  • Reaffirmed fiscal 2026 revenue guidance at £35 million to £40 million, with expected half year revenue of £18 million. This underscores confidence in the medium term outlook (corporate guidance).
  • Chosen by Stablegrid Group as technology partner for two major German grid balancing projects totaling 710 MW of electrolyser capacity, including a 30 MW NEPTUNE V based plant and a planned 680 MW indoor facility (client announcement).
  • Signed a FEED contract for a UK Hydrogen Allocation Round 2 project based on multiple 5 MW NEPTUNE V units, targeting a 2028 start of operations, subject to final investment decision (client announcement).
  • Entered a 150 MW NEPTUNE V capacity reservation agreement with RWE, reinforcing repeat business and demand visibility from a key European energy partner (client announcement).
  • Launched ALPHA 50, a 50 MW standardized, skid mounted green hydrogen plant marketed as a highly cost competitive, globally deployable solution priced at EUR 50 million (product announcement).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: increased from £0.40 to £0.53 per share, representing a material upward revision in intrinsic value.
  • Discount Rate: raised slightly from 8.92 percent to 9.51 percent, reflecting a modestly higher perceived risk profile.
  • Revenue Growth: reduced significantly from 54.14 percent to 41.68 percent, indicating more conservative medium term growth assumptions.
  • Net Profit Margin: trimmed marginally from 5.80 percent to 5.48 percent, pointing to slightly lower expected profitability.
  • Future P/E: increased sharply from 57.7x to 105.9x, implying a much richer valuation multiple on forward earnings.

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